Indonesia’s stock market is facing the possibility of massive foreign capital outflows after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) officially removed six Indonesian stocks from the MSCI Global Standard Index in its May 2026 review.

According to MSCI’s official document, the six companies excluded from the MSCI Global Standard Index are PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN), PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN), PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA), PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN), and PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT).

CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia estimates that this MSCI rebalancing could trigger passive capital outflows of up to US$1.8 billion, equivalent to around Rp31.49 trillion based on an exchange rate assumption of Rp17,500 per US dollar.

“Our estimate remains broadly in line with our previous projection, although it has been adjusted to reflect the latest share prices and exchange rates. We expect outflows of approximately US$1.8 billion from MSCI Indonesia Standard Cap constituent stocks,” CGS wrote in its research report quoted on Wednesday (13/5/2026).

CGS identified BREN, DSSA, CUAN, AMMN, and TPIA as the stocks most vulnerable to foreign outflow pressure.

As a result of these changes, Indonesia’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is projected to decline from 0.68% to 0.57%.

CGS also expects the strongest selling pressure to occur near the close of trading on May 29, 2026, when the MSCI rebalancing officially takes effect.

Even so, CGS believes the risk of additional negative surprises from MSCI has started to diminish because the market had already anticipated these adjustments after MSCI released updated free float data earlier this month.

Previously, MSCI had highlighted concerns regarding High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) among several Indonesian issuers. The issue has drawn global investor attention because it affects free float assessments and the overall accessibility of the Indonesian market.

Meanwhile, MSCI also removed 13 Indonesian companies from the MSCI Global Small Cap Index.

The stocks removed from the MSCI Global Small Cap Index are:

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM)
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)
PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk (BANK)
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE)
PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk (DSNG)
PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO)
PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)
PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA)
PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk (MSIN)
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)
PT Pacific Strategic Financial Tbk (APIC)
PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk (TAPG)

All of these changes are scheduled to become effective at the close of trading on May 29, 2026.