The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) managed to trim its losses toward the end of the first trading session on Thursday (June 18, 2026). The index closed the session at 6,154.92, down 65.82 points or 1.06%.

A total of 441 stocks ended in negative territory, while 237 stocks advanced and 281 remained unchanged. Trading activity reached Rp10.06 trillion, involving 13.59 billion shares traded across 1.05 million transactions.

For reference, the IHSG had previously fallen by more than 2% and touched an intraday low of 6,073.72. However, as the first session approached its close, the index reduced its decline and even briefly reached the day’s highest level of 6,197.17.

In the previous trading session, the IHSG closed 0.55% lower at 6,220.74.

According to Refinitiv data, several stocks that had previously supported the index’s gains became the main contributors to its decline during today’s trading. Shares of Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) exerted the largest negative impact on the index, contributing a decline of 24.01 points.

This was followed by Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), which weighed on the index by 15.68 points, Bank Central Asia (BBCA) with 9.37 points, and Bank Mandiri (BMRI) with 7.82 points.

Market participants are currently awaiting the final outcome of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (RDG).

Most market observers expect Bank Indonesia to raise its benchmark interest rate again during the June 17–18, 2026 policy meeting. However, the difference in expectations among analysts has become increasingly narrow.

Of the 14 institutions participating in CNBC Indonesia’s survey, eight forecast that the BI Rate will be increased by 25 basis points to 5.75%, while six institutions expect the central bank to maintain the rate at 5.50%.

Based on these responses, the median forecast from the CNBC Indonesia poll stands at 5.75%.

This debate has emerged because Bank Indonesia has already raised interest rates twice within a relatively short period. During the May 2026 monthly policy meeting, the central bank first increased the BI Rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%.

Subsequently, during the weekly policy meeting held on Monday (June 9, 2026), Bank Indonesia surprised the market by raising the benchmark rate by another 25 basis points to 5.50%. As a result, the central bank has lifted interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points in less than one month.

Analysts who expect rates to remain unchanged argue that the unexpected increase implemented in early June has already been sufficient to ease pressure on the rupiah.

Meanwhile, others believe that pressure on the Indonesian currency remains too significant to ignore, leaving room for an additional rate hike.

Refinitiv data show that the weakest rupiah exchange rate in history was recorded at Rp18,170 per US dollar at the close of trading on Monday (June 8, 2026).

As of 12:20 p.m. WIB, the rupiah was trading at around Rp17,795 per US dollar.

Apart from the central bank decision, investors are also closely monitoring the release of the MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review, scheduled for the early hours of Friday (June 19, 2026).

The annual review carries substantial implications because it evaluates the accessibility of capital markets across countries as well as the quality of their market infrastructure.

For Indonesia’s equity market, this announcement is always regarded as a major event. Any adjustments to market classification methodologies, treatment of equity instruments, or reviews of free-float and public ownership regulations can have structural consequences for the composition of global passive investment funds.

Such decisions may trigger significant portfolio rebalancing and could generate heightened volatility in both liquidity and the prices of large-cap stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange toward the end of the week.

In addition to the Accessibility Review, MSCI is also scheduled to publish its Annual Market Classification Review in the early hours of June 24, 2026.

This report will be particularly important for Indonesia’s stock market because it will determine whether the country retains its Emerging Market status or, in the worst-case scenario, is downgraded to Frontier Market status—an outcome that has concerned investors since MSCI circulated its market transparency notice on January 28, 2026.