DIGIVESTASI - The elected presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, are scheduled to be sworn into office on Sunday, October 20, 2024. In addition to the inauguration ceremony, the Prabowo-Gibran administration's cabinet will also be announced, although there is a possibility that the announcement may occur a day later or during the week following the inauguration.

Prabowo will lead the government alongside a large coalition, which is expected to result in a cabinet with a significant number of ministers. According to Prabowo, managing a vast and complex country like Indonesia requires a larger number of ministers, and some ministers from President Jokowi's era will be retained as they are considered the best in their fields.

Previously, there were reports that the Prabowo-Gibran cabinet would consist of 44 ministers, as revealed by MPR (People’s Consultative Assembly) Chairman Bambang Soesatyo (Bamsoet) during an event in Jakarta. Bamsoet mentioned that he had heard “coffee shop” rumors about the number of ministerial positions.

Market players are now awaiting the policies that will be implemented under the Prabowo-Gibran administration, including the "Free Nutritious Meals" program, which has been piloted in several schools. This program is expected to run smoothly and have a positive impact on several industrial sectors, especially the consumer sector.

Stocks in the consumer sector, particularly food and beverages, are projected to benefit from this program. Companies that could potentially gain from the free milk distribution initiative include PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ), PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY), and other dairy producers. For food manufacturers, stocks such as PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP), PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR), and PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) are also expected to benefit.

The poultry sector is also projected to gain, as chicken and eggs will be the main sources of protein for the program, given their relatively affordable prices compared to other commodities like beef and fish. It is projected that the oversupply of chicken and eggs will decrease to 9% in 2024 and continue to decline to 5% in 2025.

The government has also revised the reference price for poultry to IDR 25,000 per chicken, although no determination has been made regarding the base price for live chickens and DOC (day-old chicks). Stocks in this sector that could potentially benefit include PT Japfa Comfeed Tbk (JPFA) and PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN).

The ride-hailing sector will also play a role in this program through delivery services, with PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) expected to see an increase in order volumes from the "Free Nutritious Meals" program. Head of Equity Research at Bahana Sekuritas, Satria Sambijantoro, estimates that GoFood's acceptance rate will reach 5-10% due to the high volume of orders.

Other programs from the Prabowo-Gibran administration are also expected to benefit sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and SMEs. In the agricultural sector, food self-sufficiency and land intensification programs will increase productivity, benefiting rice producers like PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk (HOKI) and PT Wahana Inti Makmur Tbk (NASI).

The fisheries sector, with the involvement of local fishermen, will also gain advantages, with fish and shrimp farming stocks such as PT Sekar Laut Tbk (SKLT), PT Panca Mitra Multiperdana Tbk (PMMP), and PT Central Proteina Prima Tbk (CPRO) likely to benefit.

Meanwhile, the SME sector will receive a boost through programs supporting the people’s economy. The Prabowo-Gibran administration plans to enhance SMEs by increasing job opportunities and infrastructure development.

Furthermore, programs such as the development of the new capital city (IKN), affordable housing, and industrial downstreaming are projected to benefit the construction, property, and industrial sectors. Construction stocks such as state-owned BUMN Karya and property stocks like PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) and PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) will benefit from these initiatives.

In the industrial sector, particularly nickel, stocks such as PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL), PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO), and PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) will be advantaged. In the financial sector, banking and financial institutions are also expected to benefit from higher tax policies.

In the defense sector, although no defense companies are currently listed on the stock exchange, there remains the potential for state-owned defense companies to go public, especially following the formation of a state-owned defense holding company.

The plantation sector will also receive a boost through biodiesel and biofuel utilization policies. The biodiesel program, which is currently at the B35 level, is expected to increase to B50 in the future, benefiting palm oil companies such as PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) and PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP).

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