XRP Gains Spotlight Ahead of Potential Spot ETF Decision in October 2025

The cryptocurrency XRP is drawing market attention ahead of a potentially pivotal decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding a Spot XRP ETF in October 2025. Approval of the product is projected to trigger significant institutional capital inflows, similar to the effect of the Spot Bitcoin ETF launch in early 2024. Conversely, a delay or rejection could put short-term pressure on XRP’s price, given that market sentiment is heavily influenced by regulatory direction.

Beyond the ETF factor, XRP’s utility within the RippleNet ecosystem and its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) services has become a major price driver. Adoption of XRP by global financial institutions as a bridge asset for cross-border transactions continues to strengthen its fundamental value, setting it apart from many other altcoins that still rely primarily on market speculation.

From the supply perspective, XRP has a total supply of 100 billion tokens, with a large portion still locked in Ripple Labs’ escrow. The escrow release mechanism could exert downward pressure on the price if not balanced by rising demand. However, on-chain data indicates accumulation by large investors (whales), signaling confidence in XRP’s prospects ahead of the ETF decision. The active XRP community also frequently contributes to building positive sentiment, especially around such critical moments.

Global macroeconomic dynamics also play a crucial role in shaping XRP’s price trajectory. Monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks remain key factors. Should the Fed signal interest rate cuts in Q4 2025, capital inflows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may increase. On the other hand, if inflation remains elevated and interest rates stay restrictive, the crypto market is likely to face renewed pressure.

Global liquidity—particularly from Asia and the U.S. is another determinant of capital flows into digital assets. Following the institutional investor enthusiasm for the Bitcoin ETF, XRP could become the next candidate if approval is granted. Meanwhile, international regulation is becoming clearer: the European Union has already implemented its MiCA framework, while digital asset discussions in the U.S. are intensifying. This regulatory certainty is viewed as a factor that could strengthen investor confidence in XRP as a legally recognized utility-based asset.

Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainty also play their part. Potential recession, stock market turmoil, or international conflicts could drive investors toward alternative assets. In such scenarios, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and XRP are increasingly regarded as “digital safe havens,” potentially gaining momentum as investors exit traditional markets.

Overall, XRP’s price outlook in October 2025 will be determined by a combination of asset fundamentals and global macroeconomic conditions. If the Spot XRP ETF is approved and global monetary policy eases, XRP could potentially break above US$3.00. However, if the decision is delayed or the economic environment deteriorates, XRP’s price is expected to correct back to the US$2.50–2.60 range.