The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) opened sharply lower by 1.08%, or down 76.53 points to 7,020.53 on Monday morning (March 30, 2026). Within minutes, the decline deepened further, reaching -1.65%.

A total of 251 stocks declined, 161 advanced, and 546 remained unchanged. Trading value reached Rp404.2 billion, with 341.2 million shares traded across 53,920 transactions.

Essentially, the market is still waiting for clear signals such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, the reopening of key energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and a decline in oil prices back below US$80 per barrel.

As long as these factors have not materialized, the IHSG is likely to struggle to stage a significant rebound, as external pressures continue to dominate. Under current conditions, the upside potential remains very limited due to the absence of strong positive global catalysts.

The conflict escalation has now entered a more complex phase with the emergence of a double chokepoint risk.

Previously, market focus was primarily on the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of global oil supply. However, attention has now shifted toward the Bab el-Mandeb following the involvement of Houthi forces in Yemen.

This route serves as a key link between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal and accounts for approximately 6–12% of global trade flows. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, around 25–30% of global oil supply could be affected, increasing the risk of global inflation and raising the likelihood of a recession. In such a scenario, oil prices could remain elevated for a prolonged period.

For Indonesia, this situation creates additional pressure, as high oil prices exceed the fiscal comfort zone, which ideally should remain below US$80 per barrel.

Assuming the state budget (APBN) uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel, every US$10 increase could raise the deficit by approximately Rp51.8 trillion.

If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies are estimated at Rp236 trillion, while additional revenue would only amount to around Rp81 trillion, potentially widening the deficit by up to Rp155 trillion. This fiscal strain ultimately weighs on domestic stock market sentiment.

On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by Federal Reserve policy, which is primarily tasked with maintaining inflation and employment stability, but also indirectly plays a role in preserving financial system stability that heavily depends on liquidity.

However, liquidity conditions are currently tightening, as persistently high oil prices keep inflation elevated, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged higher-for-longer interest rate environment extending through 2027.

Another indicator supporting this outlook is the rise in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has now climbed above the 30 level, marking its highest point since the beginning of the year.