Indonesia's financial markets closed mixed, with the JCI and rupiah strengthening, while the 10-year government bond yield rose.

Wall Street also ended mixed: the Dow Jones fell, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed.

Today, markets may respond to key factors such as ECB policy decisions, US economic data, global trade tensions, and foreign capital flows.

On Thursday (July 24, 2025), the JCI rose 0.83% to 7,530.90. Trading value hit IDR 16.41 trillion with 26.27 billion shares traded across 1.64 million transactions. Foreign investors recorded a net buy of IDR 175.38 billion.

Six out of eleven sectors closed in green, led by financials (+2.43%) and basic materials (+0.67%). Property (-1.56%), utilities (-1.05%), and energy (-0.60%) weakened.

SMMA contributed the most to the JCI's rise (+25.13 index points), followed by BBRI (+24.72) and BMRI (+10.50). On the downside, BREN and AMRT dragged the index.

The rupiah appreciated 0.03% to IDR 16,280/USD, supported by a weakening US dollar index (DXY), amid tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve.

Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell for not cutting interest rates and is scheduled to visit the Fed, raising concerns over the central bank’s independence.

The 10-year bond yield rose 0.29% to 6.509%, signaling outflows from government bonds.

Wall Street closed mixed Thursday: S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new records after Alphabet’s earnings beat estimates. S&P 500 rose 0.07% to 6,363.35, Nasdaq climbed 0.18% to 21,057.96. Dow dropped 0.70% to 44,693.91, led by IBM’s over 7% decline.

Tesla shares dropped 8% after a second consecutive quarterly revenue decline. Meanwhile, attention shifted to Trump’s rare visit to the Fed ahead of the rate-setting meeting.

Positive sentiment also came from reports of a nearing US-EU trade agreement on import tariffs.

For Friday (July 25, 2025), key market drivers include ECB policy decisions, global trade developments, foreign inflows, and stocks entering FCA.

Foreign investors posted net buys on Wednesday (IDR 663.67 billion) and Thursday (IDR 176.67 billion), signaling a potential continuation of JCI gains.

ECB Policy: ECB held its benchmark rate at 2% after eight cuts this past year. With inflation back to target and global trade risks rising, ECB remains cautious.

Tariffs from the US on European goods are expected to be 15%, down from the previous 30% threat.

Indonesia-US Trade Deal: Indonesia’s exports to the US are set to face 19% tariffs, down from the prior 32% threat. Some products may qualify for rates close to 0%.

Both countries agreed to reduce NTBs and exempt US goods from local content (TKDN) rules in specific sectors. FDA certifications will be recognized for certain health and tech products.

Bank Stocks Rally: SOE bank shares rose: BBRI (+3.94%), BMRI (+2.56%), BBNI (+2.92%), and BBCA (+0.89%). Foreign inflows helped lift sentiment, although BBCA saw net foreign selling.

Ongoing inflows may support JCI further, although technical resistance and unfilled gaps suggest short-term correction risks.

COIN Joins FCA, CDIA Next?: COIN entered the FCA watchlist and plunged 9.52% after prior sharp rallies. CDIA is also expected to join FCA after a 700% surge.

US Jobless Claims: Initial claims dropped to 217,000 — lowest since April — despite continuing claims rising to 1.955 million.

Trump’s Fed Comments: Trump won’t fire Powell but reiterates calls for lower interest rates. His Fed visit comes days before the FOMC meeting.

Today’s Key Events:

• US durable goods orders (June)

• Indonesia poverty and spending inequality data (March)

• Public expose of CSMI and dividend payment schedules

Indonesia’s Latest Economic Indicators:

• GDP Growth Q1 2025 YoY: 4.87%

• Inflation June 2025 YoY: 1.87%

• BI Rate: 5.25%

• Fiscal Deficit: 0.81% of GDP

• Current Account Deficit: 0.1% of GDP

• Balance of Payments Deficit: US$ 800 million

• FX Reserves: US$ 152.6 billion