U.S. consumers are expected to face slightly faster inflation in May this year, especially in the goods sector, as producers gradually begin passing on higher import tariffs. According to Bloomberg’s report on Sunday (June 8, 2025), prices for goods and services — excluding the often-volatile costs of food and energy — rose by 0.3% in May, marking the largest monthly increase in four months, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists. In April, the core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2%.

The core CPI, which is considered a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, is projected to climb for the first time this year to an annual rate of 2.9%, according to the median forecast. The upcoming consumer inflation report on Wednesday, along with producer price data on Thursday, will serve as the final indicators for Federal Reserve officials as they prepare for their policy meeting scheduled for June 17–18, 2025.

A group of economists including Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, and Chris G. Collins anticipate that the actual CPI figure for May may fall short of expectations, due to deflation in discretionary services more than offsetting stronger inflation in goods. “Some companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs. We are seeing partial cost transfers in product categories like furniture, clothing, and auto parts. However, airfare prices dropped significantly, and hotel and recreational services also declined,” they noted.

While President Donald Trump continues to push the central bank to lower interest rates swiftly, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have indicated they are taking time to evaluate how trade policies are impacting inflation, economic growth, and the labor market. The U.S. central bank has entered a blackout period ahead of the upcoming policy meeting. Aside from inflation data, analysts are also watching the weekly jobless claims report for signs of stress in the labor market. Thursday’s data showed that the number of applicants rose in the final week of May to the highest level since October. Nevertheless, Friday’s employment report revealed that although job growth slowed, it remained at a healthy pace.