Oil prices surged in Asian trading on Monday (2/3/2026) amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran. In early trading, Brent crude climbed to slightly above US$80 per barrel, compared with Friday’s closing price of US$72.87.

In fact, Brent— the global benchmark for crude oil—had already been rising since last week after the US President threatened action against Iran during ongoing nuclear negotiations. The turmoil has raised concerns that the transportation of around 20% of global oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls, could be disrupted.

Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East and OPEC+ Research at Kpler, told AFP that under such circumstances, insurance costs for shipments would become extremely expensive. She added that prices could reach US$90 per barrel.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, expressed a similar view in a note. He explained that although alternative infrastructure routes exist to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a complete closure would still result in a net loss of 8 to 10 million barrels of crude oil per day.

In theory, oil-importing countries maintain reserves, and OECD members are required to hold stocks equivalent to 90 days of supply. Nevertheless, Leon cautioned that prices above US$100 per barrel cannot be ruled out.

Bakr emphasized that if a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, no matter how much spare capacity is available in strategic reserves, it would be insufficient to fill such a large supply gap.

Gas prices are also expected to rise on Monday, as Qatar—one of the leading exporters of liquefied natural gas—has been affected by Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

Qatar hosts US military bases, along with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. It is home to Al Udeid, the largest US military base in the Middle East.

Notably, the last time crude oil prices exceeded US$100 per barrel was at the onset of the war in Ukraine. During that period, gas prices also surged, playing a significant role in a prolonged phase of rising inflation.

Eric Dor, an economist at IESEG School of Management in Paris, stated that higher gasoline and energy prices, increased shipping costs, and reduced revenue in air transportation could negatively impact economic growth. He noted that if the situation lasts only three days, it would not be serious. However, if it continues for a longer period, it could trigger an additional recessionary effect.

Stocks and Trump

In equity markets, certain sectors such as defense may benefit on Monday. However, Dor expects an overall decline in stock prices, particularly in the air transport, maritime shipping, and tourism sectors.

Meanwhile, Michelle Brouhard, another analyst at Kpler, described high oil prices as a vulnerability for Trump. She suggested that Iran may attempt to keep crude prices elevated to pressure Trump, given that he had promised lower energy prices to American voters ahead of the midterm elections later this year.