Economists have warned that Indonesia’s trade surplus is likely to decline as the pace of exports slows down. The decrease in exports is influenced by ongoing negotiations on reciprocal tariffs involving U.S. President Donald Trump. According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s export value from January to April 2025 reached US$87.36 billion, marking a 6.65% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

However, export value in April 2025 alone was only US$20.74 billion, down by 10.77% compared to March, which recorded US$23.24 billion. Mohammad Faisal, Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia, predicts that Indonesia’s trade surplus will shrink due to declining exports. “The results of the negotiations will definitely have a significant impact going forward, but overall the trade surplus will decrease because of the drop in exports,” Faisal told Bisnis on Monday (June 9, 2025). He also revealed that Indonesia’s exports were already predicted to face pressure before Trump’s tariffs take effect on July 8, 2025, due to tariff uncertainties during the 90-day negotiation period.

“That 90-day negotiation period has already pressured our exports; in fact, exports have been suppressed, especially if the agreement on July 8 maintains higher tariffs for us,” he explained. Faisal further stated that the outcome of the July 8 negotiations will continue to impact Indonesia’s export decline since the reciprocal tariffs tend to be higher than the base tariffs. Moreover, Faisal explained that Indonesia’s export growth would slow due to trade barriers triggered by Trump’s tariffs.

This is because the United States is the largest import market worldwide. He added that when the U.S. import market is hindered, it affects many countries, including Indonesia, even though Indonesia’s export share to the U.S. is only about 10%, which is smaller than that of other countries. “However, there is still an effect on Indonesia’s exports, albeit not as significant as neighboring countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand,” he clarified. Besides Trump’s tariffs, Faisal noted that the export decline in April 2025 was also influenced by seasonal factors, such as the Eid holiday.

Typically, Eid holidays lead to a reduction in export-import activities. Previously, the Ministry of Trade (Kemendag) stated that ongoing negotiations over Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy contributed to a monthly slowdown in Indonesia’s trade exports, although the trade surplus in April 2025 remained intact. Trade Minister Budi Santoso said that the negotiations on Trump’s tariff policies were among the reasons for the decline in Indonesia’s exports from March to April 2025.

Budi mentioned that several countries acknowledged that many exporters are still waiting for the final decision on Trump’s tariff policy, which is still being negotiated. “[The second factor] is heavily related to Trump’s policy. Moreover, when we met with other trade ministers in Kuala Lumpur during the ASEAN Summit, we found that the impact is quite significant for each country, and many exporters tend to still wait for the [final tariff decision],” Budi said at the Ministry of Trade office in Jakarta on Wednesday (June 4, 2025). Budi explained that the tariff decision from Trump not only affects exports to the U.S. but also impacts exports to other countries that are also waiting on the outcome.