IMF Forecasts Indonesia’s Economy to Grow 4.7% in 2025 and 2026

Washington, D.C. – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Indonesia’s economy will expand by 4.7% in both 2025 and 2026. The forecast was published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday (April 22, 2025).

This figure marks a 0.3 percentage point decline from the country's GDP growth in the previous year. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.9% to 5% in 2025, and further to 5.1% in 2026.

For emerging economies in Asia, the IMF expects average growth of 4.5% in 2025. In contrast, low-income countries are forecast to grow at a slower rate of 4.2%, down by 0.4% compared to prior estimates.

“In low-income countries, we are seeing a downgrade of around 0.4% in projected growth,” said Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, IMF’s Chief Economist, during a press conference.

Globally, the IMF projects that economic growth will decline to 2.8% this year, down from the 3.3% projected in January 2025.

One of the main factors driving the downgrade is the tariff policy implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump. The IMF noted that new tariffs announced between February 1 and April 4, along with retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly impacted global outlook.

“If such trade measures continue, the global economy may face a more severe slowdown,” the report concluded.