Economists assess that Indonesia’s economic growth is likely to remain stagnant over the next three months. This outlook is reflected in the Economist Survey Report released by the Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM) at FEB UI.

“Looking ahead to the next three months, experts generally expect the pace of economic growth to remain unchanged from its current level,” the LPEM FEB UI survey report stated, as cited on Monday (March 30, 2026).

The survey was conducted among 85 economists between February 24 and March 9, 2026.

The findings show that the majority, 36 out of 85 respondents (42%), believe conditions will remain stagnant. Meanwhile, 28 experts (33%) anticipate a deterioration, and 21 economists (25%) expect improvement.

LPEM FEB UI recorded an average response of -0.11, which lies exactly at the neutral point, reflecting a broadly stagnant outlook with a slight downward bias. The relatively moderate confidence score of 7.47 indicates lingering uncertainty among experts. This subdued growth outlook is generally associated with stagnant business activity and more cautious consumer spending in the coming months.

Experts also expect inflationary pressures to increase over the next three months compared to current conditions.

A dominant portion of respondents, 64 out of 85 (75%), foresee rising inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, 18 (21%) expect no change, and only 3 (4%) anticipate easing.

The survey shows an average response of 0.91 with a relatively high confidence score of 7.60, indicating a strong consensus that inflation will intensify in the near term.

Experts partly attribute this outlook to ongoing geopolitical tensions, as disruptions in global supply chains and energy markets caused by conflicts are likely to translate into higher domestic prices.

This result also marks a notable increase from the previous survey’s average of +0.55, suggesting that concerns over inflation are not only persistent but also growing.

Regarding the labor market, most experts, 37 out of 85 respondents (44%), expect conditions to remain unchanged over the next three months. However, the combined weight of 39 experts (46%) who foresee tightening conditions is significant enough to push the overall assessment into negative territory. Only 9 respondents (11%) anticipate an easing labor market.

An average response of -0.52 reflects a labor market outlook that, while dominated by expectations of stability, carries considerable concern.

“This figure represents a decline from the previous round’s average of -0.38, indicating that concerns about the labor market are deepening rather than stabilizing. The moderate confidence score of 7.46 out of 10 also reflects uncertainty among experts,” the report stated.

For the business environment, most respondents, 40 out of 85 (47%), expect no change in the next three months. However, a nearly equal share of 39 experts (46%) anticipate worsening conditions, while only 6 (7%) foresee improvement.

The average response of -0.49 reflects a broader pattern of expectations dominated by stagnation but weighted toward the negative side.

This figure is also lower than the previous round’s average of -0.28, indicating that concerns about the business environment are continuing to accumulate. The confidence score stands at 7.57 out of 10.

Meanwhile, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto remains optimistic that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will reach 5.5%, in line with the government’s target range of 5.5% to 6% for the period. This growth is expected to be supported by increased activity during Ramadan.

“It appears that the 5.5% target can be achieved, considering the economic activity during Ramadan,” Airlangga said to the media at the DJP Mosque some time ago.

He also noted that inflation this year may rise due to the low base effect from last year’s deflation, particularly during the electricity tariff subsidy policy implemented in January–February 2025.

In addition, Airlangga confirmed that the Work From Anywhere (WFA) policy after the long Eid holiday will be implemented for civil servants and encouraged for private sector workers.

“WFA after Eid will be implemented for civil servants and recommended for the private sector, except for public services,” he added.

On the other hand, rising global oil prices remain a key inflation risk of concern to the public. In response, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa assured that the government will not increase subsidized fuel prices.

He also guaranteed that the state budget (APBN) will remain secure even if oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, a point he has conveyed to President Prabowo.

Furthermore, he emphasized that the 2026 state budget deficit will not exceed the safe threshold of 3%. For reference, the deficit in 2025 was recorded at Rp695.1 trillion, or 2.92% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).