China experienced a significant surge in exports in June 2025, accompanied by an unexpected rebound in imports. This positive trade performance delivered an unforeseen boost to the Chinese economy just as the deadline for tariff negotiations with the United States approaches.

According to data released by China’s Customs Authority on Monday (July 14), the country’s trade surplus rose to USD114.8 billion, equivalent to IDR 1,868 trillion in June. This figure was up from USD103.2 billion in May and USD98.94 billion during the same period last year, and it exceeded analysts’ expectations of USD109 billion. Exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year, rising from 4.8% in May and surpassing market estimates. Meanwhile, imports also posted a slight increase of 1.1%, reversing the previous month’s 3.4% decline.

This surprising recovery in both exports and imports occurred as trade tensions between China and the U.S. showed signs of easing. The two countries are working towards a deal ahead of the August 12 deadline. Analysts believe the export surge resulted from Chinese exporters rushing shipments to take advantage of the temporary tariff pause. Export orders had weakened in May due to the trade war’s pressure.

The export increase was largely driven by shipments to countries other than the U.S. In contrast, trade with the U.S. declined, with exports and imports falling by 16.1% and 15.5% respectively. However, these declines were less severe than in May, when they dropped by 34.5% and 18.1%. Trade relations improved after a tariff truce was reached in early May. During negotiations in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with a Chinese delegation and agreed to reduce tariffs and lay the groundwork for continued talks. Still, the truce is set to expire on August 12, and both sides have accused each other of violating terms. Aside from China’s pledge to boost rare earth metal exports and the U.S.’ promise to ease trade restrictions, little progress has been made in ongoing negotiations.

Shang-Jin Wei, a professor of Chinese Business and Economics at Columbia Business School, explained that the rush in exports before the tariff deadline was a key factor behind the growing trade surplus. He also noted that weak domestic consumption in China contributed to low import figures.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a trade agreement with Vietnam, setting a 20% tariff on imports from the country. However, a 40% tariff will apply to products suspected of being rerouted from China to the U.S. via Vietnam. Experts warned that this loophole could undermine the effectiveness of tariffs against China and increase pressure on Chinese exporters.

Data further revealed that China’s exports to Vietnam surged by 23.8% year-on-year, while imports from Vietnam dropped by 13.7%.

“There’s a strong chance that the U.S. and China could strike a deal before August 12, as both sides have a vested interest,” said Dr. Wei, as quoted by Newsweek on Monday (July 14). However, he cautioned that President Trump’s tendency to make sudden new demands could still derail negotiations at any moment.

Bloomberg economist Eric Zhu noted that the jump in Chinese exports during June was driven by a recovery in shipments to the U.S. following reduced tariff tensions. Nevertheless, he warned that the rebound could be short-lived. China is expected to release its second-quarter 2025 GDP figures on Tuesday (July 15), with growth projected at 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.4% in Q1.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently held talks with China’s Foreign Minister, which the U.S. State Department described as “constructive and pragmatic.” Rubio said the likelihood of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping is high, though no date has been confirmed.