Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo projected that global economic conditions will remain weak throughout 2025 and 2026. He said the situation will be worsened by fragmented growth across countries, leading to heightened global uncertainty.

Perry forecasted that the world economy in 2025 will grow by only 3.1%, lower than the 3.3% growth recorded in 2024. Furthermore, he expects a deeper slowdown in 2026, when global economic expansion is likely to fall to around 3%.

“It’s not only that global economic growth is slowing down, but there is also a growing fragmentation in growth patterns between nations,” Perry stated during a working meeting with Commission XI of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) in Jakarta, Wednesday (November 12, 2025).

He elaborated that this fragmentation of global growth will be reflected in the diverging economic performance of major countries. For instance, the United States and China are expected to experience slower growth, while the European Union and India are projected to maintain relatively strong economic expansion.

However, Perry emphasized that all major regions are expected to post slower growth in 2025 compared to 2024. The main factor behind this, he said, is the U.S. tariff policy, which has slowed down the global disinflation trend.

“In the first quarter, the decline in global inflation had been quite rapid, but later reversed in several countries, including the United States, where inflation started to rise again,” Perry explained.