Japan's birth rate has continued to decline over the past year, marking the ninth consecutive year of decrease and reaching a historic low. This development has become a serious warning for the Japanese government.

According to Bloomberg on Wednesday (June 4, 2025), the fertility rate, or the average number of children born to a woman in Japan, dropped from 1.2 in 2023 to 1.15. Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Health shows this figure is the lowest since 1947. The decline is most pronounced in Tokyo, where the rate has remained below 1 for two consecutive years.

The total number of births fell to around 686,000, marking the first time the annual birth count dropped below 700,000. Meanwhile, deaths reached about 1.61 million, leading to a net population decrease of roughly 919,000 and extending Japan’s annual population decline streak to 18 years. These figures exclude migration.

This data highlights the urgency of government efforts to boost birth rates. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has introduced various policies aimed at easing the financial burden on families, including expanding subsidies related to children and providing free secondary education.

The government has also guaranteed full wage compensation for couples who both take parental leave and improved working conditions for childcare workers and nurses. These measures build upon initiatives started by Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who pledged to increase government family support policies to levels comparable to Sweden, where 3.4% of GDP is dedicated to family allowances. Kishida warned that Japan risks losing its capacity to function as a society unless bold actions are taken.

“The rapidly declining birthrate crisis remains unresolved,” said a spokesperson from the Ministry of Health. The ministry also cited the shrinking population of young women and trends toward later marriage and childbirth as key contributing factors. The ongoing birth rate decline raises renewed concerns about the future of Japan’s social security system.

The nation’s public pension program faces increasing pressure with fewer contributors and more beneficiaries. Over the past two decades, the number of contributors has dropped by about 3 million, while beneficiaries have grown nearly 40%, according to a separate ministry report.

Rising social security costs place greater strain on public finances, where the debt-to-GDP ratio ranks highest among developed countries. For the 2025 fiscal year, social welfare spending reached 38.3 trillion yen, or about $266.3 billion, accounting for one-third of the national budget. The labor market is also expected to remain under stress. If current trends continue, Japan could face a shortage of 6.3 million workers by 2030, according to estimates from Persol Research and Consulting.

This demographic challenge is increasingly global. In South Korea, fertility rates slightly increased last year for the first time in nine years, though only to 0.75. In the United States, birth rates declined in 2023 to the lowest level in over 40 years, a trend that may prompt the Donald Trump administration to consider a range of childcare policies. Meanwhile, there is a glimmer of hope from Japan’s increase of over 10,000 new marriages in 2024 compared to the previous year. Since marriage and childbirth are closely linked in the country, this rise could help support future fertility.

Local governments, including Tokyo, have recently launched initiatives to encourage marriage, such as developing dating apps and organizing matchmaking events to create more opportunities for people to meet potential partners.