Bitcoin May Double in 2025, But JPMorgan Warns of Possible Drop After Halving

Bitcoin’s price movement is once again in the spotlight, as analysts offer sharply contrasting forecasts for the world’s leading cryptocurrency amid ongoing market volatility.

Mark Yusko, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, predicts Bitcoin could double in value to US$150,000 (approx. Rp 2.5 billion) this year. Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, Yusko emphasized Bitcoin's dominant status, calling it “a better form of gold,” and recommended that investors allocate 1% to 3% of their portfolios to the digital asset.

He cited the January launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key bullish driver, along with the upcoming halving event in late April, which he believes will trigger a supply shock and potentially spark a new surge in prices.

“Big moves typically come after the halving,” Yusko said, adding that historically, Bitcoin reaches new peaks around nine months following the event.

On the contrary, analysts at JPMorgan are sounding a more cautious tone. In their latest report, the U.S. investment bank projected that Bitcoin’s price could fall to around US$42,000 post-halving. This estimate is based on their assessment of Bitcoin’s production cost, or mining cost, which often acts as a price floor.

According to JPMorgan, the halving event—which reduces miner rewards by 50%—will lower Bitcoin's production cost to an estimated US$42,000. As per MacroMicro data, current production costs hover slightly below US$50,000, implying the halving could significantly reduce costs and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

JPMorgan noted that miners are unlikely to sell Bitcoin below the cost of production, as it would result in financial losses—making US$42,000 a likely lower bound for Bitcoin in the near term.