Standard Chartered Reaffirms Bitcoin Price Projection to Reach $200,000 by the End of 2025

Standard Chartered has once again reinforced its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting the price to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast was initially announced earlier this year and has now been reiterated in the bank’s latest report. The global bank also expects Bitcoin to approach the $135,000 range by the end of the third quarter of this year.

ETFs and Corporations as the Driving Forces

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, explained that Bitcoin’s price surge is being driven by substantial accumulation from financial institutions, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases. During the second quarter of 2025, the total accumulation from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries reached approximately 245,000 BTC. This figure is expected to continue rising in the third and fourth quarters.

The Halving Cycle Is No Longer Relevant

Kendrick further argued that the typical price declines occurring 18 months after Bitcoin halving events—such as those observed in 2016 and 2020—are unlikely to repeat. He attributed this shift to the structural support now provided by institutional investors, which was absent in previous cycles. “The era of Bitcoin halving cycles is over,” Kendrick stated, signaling a fundamental change in the dynamics of the crypto market.

Regulatory and Geopolitical Sentiment as Catalysts

Standard Chartered also highlighted two external factors that could boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. First, the potential replacement of the Federal Reserve Chair before October 2025. Second, the approval of stablecoin regulations in the United States, including the proposed GENIUS Act. Both catalysts are expected to generate positive sentiment for the crypto market.

Caution Over Volatility in the Second Half

Despite maintaining an optimistic price projection, Kendrick cautioned that significant volatility could arise between the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth quarter. This period is anticipated to test whether the historical halving cycle patterns remain applicable in the current market environment.

Conclusion: Strong Rally, Persistent Risks

Overall, Standard Chartered outlines the following bullish scenario for Bitcoin:

• A medium-term target of around $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025, serving as the initial rally momentum.

• Further upside potential toward $200,000 by year-end, supported by continued ETF and corporate treasury purchases.

• Additional catalysts include stablecoin regulatory developments and potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve.

However, downside risks remain present in the second half of 2025, as potential market turbulence could trigger corrections.