Market Analysis: Bitcoin Could Drop by 26% in Q1 2025

The latest crypto market analysis suggests that Bitcoin prices could decline by up to 26% during the first quarter of 2025, potentially reaching USD 75,000 or approximately IDR 1.21 billion (assuming an exchange rate of IDR 16,220 per USD). However, some analysts remain skeptical about this scenario.

In a report published on January 28, Derive’s Head of Research, Sean Dawson, stated that the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below USD 75,000 by March has risen to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Volatility and Market Trends

Bitcoin’s price movements are heavily influenced by broader market dynamics. On January 27, BTC dropped 6.5% to USD 97,906 amid a wider decline in both crypto and stock markets.

Meanwhile, analysts from Bitfinex highlighted that Bitcoin’s price action increasingly reflects shifts in the global economic landscape.
"Bitcoin’s price movements are not solely based on its own fundamentals but are also significantly affected by broader macroeconomic dynamics, particularly risk sentiment," stated the Bitfinex analyst team.
 

They further emphasized that Bitcoin is no longer acting as an isolated digital asset but is becoming more integrated with global risk asset markets.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also warned about a potential Bitcoin price drop to the USD 70,000–75,000 range. He suggested that such a correction could trigger a mini financial crisis, which may lead central banks to increase liquidity.
Hayes believes that this intervention could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to reach USD 250,000 by the end of 2025.

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